Will a model from a Chinese lab hold sole #1 on the LMArena Text leaderboard before Jan 1, 2027?

An independent Muse-made points market.

Outcomes: Yes · No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time after the creation of this market and before January 1, 2027 - 00:00 UTC, a model whose credited organization is headquartered in mainland China or Hong Kong holds sole rank #1 on the LMArena Text leaderboard (lmarena.ai, default view, style control enabled). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market: • “Sole rank #1” means the model is the only model shown at rank 1 on the leaderboard; any shared or tied rank 1 with a non-Chinese- headquartered organization does not qualify. • “Chinese lab” means a credited organization headquartered in mainland China or Hong Kong only; organizations headquartered in Taiwan, Singapore, or any other jurisdiction do not qualify. Examples (illustrative, not exhaustive): Alibaba/Qwen, Zhipu, ByteDance, Tencent, Moonshot, DeepSeek. • “Credited organization” is the owner/organization name as shown on the LMArena leaderboard. Models fine-tuned by or credited to another organization resolve under the credited organization shown on the leaderboard. • Evidence standard: a qualifying sole #1 must be verifiable from a dated public archive snapshot of the LMArena Text leaderboard (e.g., Wayback Machine or archive.today). Screenshots, social-media images, or unpublished files alone do not qualify. Any bettor may submit a qualifying archived snapshot. • Only events occurring after this market’s creation are eligible for resolution.

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